, Associate Professor in International Development Studies,聽
If you鈥檙e planning on a winter break to Cuba, get ready for an . If you鈥檙e wondering if United States President Donald Trump鈥檚 oil embargo will shatter Cuba鈥檚 Communist government, dig in for a drawn-out slog. And if you鈥檙e Cuban, .
Cuba is on the brink of one of the worst social and economic catastrophes since the . . The electrical grid is in tatters.
. , largely because the municipal waste system in Havana ground to a halt in 2025.
. Infant mortality spiked from .
And now, revenue streams from tourism, international medical co-operation and pharmaceutical production are all but dried up. to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine since 2022. Cuba is hurting.
The U.S. versus Cuba
Cuba鈥檚 current pain may not be enough to topple its Communist government, despite the desires of many . Nor is the current crisis all Trump鈥檚 work. Cuba is a victim of the breakdown of the old international rules-based order.
The U.S. has long targeted Cuba through various economic weapons dating from the early 1960s. that not only prohibited U.S. companies from doing business with Cuba, but also punished companies in other countries for dealing with both Cuba and the U.S.
In his second term, for Americans visiting Cuba along with some trade policies, but this was short-lived.
Cuban doctors
For decades, Cuba relied on an elaborate network of international solidarity and co-operation with rich and poor countries alike. .
While Cuban doctors working abroad received a salary bump, the government received handsome cash deposits and preferred trade agreements for select products. .
Cuban doctors served in 103 countries, and as of 2021, they were active in 69 nations. Agreements were also made for other personnel to work abroad, including athletic coaches, teachers and engineers.
The U.S. targeted Cuba鈥檚 international solidarity work in 2006 by creating the , which essentially regarded Cuban workers as 鈥渢rafficked.鈥�
The State Department approved an annual US$10 million budget until 2017 to locate and . Diplomats offered them expedited immigration to the U.S. But upon arrival, many had their medical credentials ignored and wound up unemployed or underemployed.
Global support
Against one of the longest economic blockades in history, Cuba has nonetheless positioned itself as an active global player. It鈥檚 a diplomatic heavyweight with and well over 100 foreign embassies in Havana.
The United Nations General Assembly routinely denounces the American embargo on Cuba. In 2025, amid shifting political alliances, the assembly voted .
Many international partnerships have kept Cuba going through hard times in the past. In the 1990s, tourism expanded, notably from these countries, helping to stimulate the Cuban economy.
Canadian mining company Sherritt invested heavily in Cuba to extract nickel. When COVID-19 overwhelmed health systems worldwide in 2020, Cuba was the first to volunteer medical services to 19 countries, including affluent states . They even took in a quarantined .
But in 2026, countries are sending in aircraft to evacuate their vacationing nationals, and companies , but because so many professionally trained Cubans have emigrated.
Unlike the 1960s and the 1990s, no brave partners are coming forward to do business with Cuba, which only shows how weak international solidarity is today.
Here are three possible outcomes for Cuba in the coming months in descending order of likelihood:
1. Deals behind the scenes
A backroom deal could be struck between Trump鈥檚 White House and Miguel D铆az-Canal鈥檚 government in Cuba in much the same way that the . For example, the Trump administration could permit fuel to be purchased in cash from the U.S., or more tourist real estate may be opened to foreign ownership.
If any deal is in the works, the sticking point will be elections. Unlike Venezuela, with a legitimate opposition in the wings, Cuba has none. Political opponents to the revolution have long been jailed or exiled, and . Toppling the current government would leave an enormous power vacuum.
2. Martial law
If the fuel embargo remains, Cuba and civil defence to prepare for foreign hostility and to better ration resources.
in what he calls a 鈥渨ar of the people,鈥� which may help explain why Canadian and Russian airlines are now hastily sending in rescue flights for tourists.
Martial law would mean ultra-tight rationing, political volatility and the government acquiring goods through murky channels, which, combined, pose a heightened security risk to the U.S. just 140 kilometres off its shores. Since Dwight D. Eisenhower, most American presidents quickly figured out it was better to have a stable and secure, even though ideologically opposed, neighbour than a politically unstable and vulnerable basketcase.
The situation will grow dire since the well-educated professional class has already left, along with many doctors and nurses. In past crises, the educated, youthful professional class was on hand; this time, they鈥檙e already gone.
3. The international community steps in
Third, the world could stand by its sentiment at the United Nations General Assembly and sends much-needed resources and trade to Cuba despite the U.S. bellicosity.
It could be a rallying point for the new era of international order, where bullied countries in the Americas and in Europe defy American pressure and bring lifelines to Cuba.
International solidarity could reverse some of the harm and take the pressure off Cubans, including those so desperate they鈥檇 choose to fight as mercenaries with Russia.
As the world has seen before, when nations stand up to Trump, . Assistance need not come through foreign aid, but simply by keeping the channels open for business.
But if the international community ignores Cuba today, a humanitarian nightmare will unfold soon.
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